On January 17, recall organizers filed more than one million signatures to force a recall election of Republican Gov. Scott Walker and 845,000 signatures to recall Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch. The Government Accountability Board (GAB) must certify that organizers turned in enough valid signatures to force the election, and that will take at least two months. Once the signatures are certified, the election date will be set.
Campaign Notes
Most election experts and campaign regulators with the GAB believe the actual election date will ultimately land somewhere between late May and July. The two-month signature certification process will likely be followed by numerous lawsuits that would complicate the process and push the date back as well. In addition, there will be a primary election on the Democratic side for governor and lieutenant governor. Because the process is as complicated as it is unique, here are six points to keep in mind as the recall proceeds.
1. The recall election of Scott Walker is “ground zero” for public employee unions and Democrats in Wisconsin. One year after dropping the collective bargaining “bomb” on 175,000 public employees, anti-Walker recall organizers and their allies will go all-out to defeat the governor and four more Republican state senators who voted for the changes to collective bargaining. Recalling Walker is their number one priority.
2. The first two stages of this war played out in 2011 and broke all the previous election spending records. The state Supreme Court race between JoAnn Kloppenburg and David Prosser cost approximately $5.7 million in total spending and the nine state Senate recall elections in 2011 an astonishing $44 million. The Walker recall election including candidates, political committees and interest groups will likely break all the old records. Some project total spending to exceed $50 million.
3. Gov. Walker and Lt. Gov. Kleefisch can raise unlimited amounts of legal money from individuals and political action committees until the recall signatures are certified. The unlimited fundraising started in mid-November last year and it’s likely to continue into this month. Walker and Kleefisch raised a stunning combined $12.3 million from January 2011 through January 2012. The Walker campaign raised and spent a total of $11.3 million in the entire 2010 race for governor. After the signatures are certified and the election dates are set, the unlimited campaign fundraising stops and “normal” gubernatorial fundraising limits apply. Campaign finance professionals predict the Walker campaign could easily raise and spend more than $20 million before it’s over. While Walker’s Democratic challengers are just starting their fundraising, the national attention and importance of this race will almost certainly see similar record breaking amounts of money raised for their effort as well.
4. In a January poll conducted by Marquette Law School, Gov. Walker held leads of 6 to 10 percentage points over four potential Democratic opponents in hypothetical matchups for the likely recall election. The independent survey, conducted by Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, found Walker defeating former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, 49 percent to 42 percent; Walker over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, 50 percent to 44 percent; Walker beating former Congressman David Obey, 49 percent to 42 percent; and Walker over State Senator Tim Cullen (D-Janesville), 50 percent to 40 percent. Since the poll was conducted in mid-January, former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk and state Senator Kathleen Vinehout (D-Alma) have formally entered the race, and state Senator Tim Cullen has dropped out. In addition, longtime Wisconsin Secretary of State Doug La Follette says he plans to run for governor, joining the Democratic field vying to run against Gov. Walker.
5. Gubernatorial recalls are rare, with only two governors having ever been successfully recalled. California Governor Grey Davis was ousted by Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003, and North Dakota Governor Lynn Frazier was defeated by Ragnvold Nestos in 1921. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, there are 18 states that include recall provisions in their state constitutions. With fewer than half the states allowing for recall, it’s not surprising to see such limited use of recall at the gubernatorial level. It may also be true that removing an incumbent governor for something less than official misconduct in office is very difficult. However, given the intensity of the current political debate in Wisconsin and the number of recall petition signatures, this recall will likely be an extremely close race one way or another.
6. The ongoing John Doe investigation into former aides to Scott Walker when he was Milwaukee County Executive remains a wild card in the recall election. Several aides and associates have been charged with offenses as a result of the probe. Walker has stated he was unaware of the illegal activity; Democrats hope this isn’t true.
There may be other candidates jumping into the race on the Democratic side very soon. As the recall election continues into spring and summer, we will update you on developments as they occur. Watch for updates in future issues of Wisconsin Real Estate Magazine.
Joe Murray is Director of Political and Governmental Affairs for the WRA.