According to a Smart Politics analysis of all 50 states, Wisconsin ranks as the number one “quintessential battleground state” in presidential elections since 1968. The Smart Politics comparison found that Wisconsin and Pennsylvania lead the country with the largest number of presidential contests decided by single-digits over the last 11 election cycles dating back to 1968, with nine each.

What separates Wisconsin from Pennsylvania is that seven of the nine races in the Badger State were decided by less than five points: Nixon in 1968: 3.6 points; Carter in 1976: 1.7 points; Reagan in 1980: 4.7 points; Dukakis in 1988: 3.6 points; Clinton in 1992: 4.4 points; Gore in 2000: 0.2 points; and Kerry in 2004: 0.4 points. In Pennsylvania, only five of nine races were decided by less than five points.

Because 2012 is a presidential election cycle, a look at recent polling in Wisconsin and election results from 2011 can provide hints as to what we might expect from swing state voters in Wisconsin with the presidential race that is now less than one year away.

Polling

For comparison purposes, we will use three different polling firms to get a sense of where Wisconsin voters are 11 months out from the November 2012 election.

Rasmussen Reports
500 Likely Voters  I  October 26, 2011
Rick Perry (R):  46%
Barack Obama (D):  42%
Other:   6%
Not Sure:   6%

Barack Obama (D):  45%
Mitt Romney (R):  41%
Other: 7%
Not Sure: 7%

Barack Obama (D):  47%
*Herman Cain (R):  42%
Other: 5%
Not Sure: 7%

Public Policy Polling
1,170 Wisconsin Voters  I  October 20-23, 2011
Barack Obama (D): 50%
Rick Perry (R): 39%
Undecided: 11%

Barack Obama (D): 46%
Mitt Romney (R): 42%
Undecided: 11%

Barack Obama (D): 49%
*Herman Cain (R): 42%
Undecided: 0%

 Wisconsin Policy Research Institute

605 Wisconsin Adults  I  October 2011
Barack Obama (D): 48%
Rick Perry (R): 30%
Don’t Know: 22%

Barack Obama (D): 46%
Mitt Romney (R): 35%
Don’t Know: 20%

Barack Obama (D): 50%
*Herman Cain (R): 31%
Don’t Know: 19%

These three survey firms indicate that the presidential race in Wisconsin is likely to be another close one, at this point. For the most part, President Obama is under 50 percent, a key metric for any incumbent running for re-election, and all three major GOP challengers remain within striking distance. With 11 months to go - a lifetime in political terms - before the November general election, the political dynamic could easily change to favor one side or the other. But as a general rule, pollsters tend to agree that political trends one year out from the election are often fairly reliable indicators where voters are heading. These numbers suggest a difficult and close election for Obama in Wisconsin.

Rasmussen Reports is viewed as a conservative pollster, Public Policy Polling is a Democratic firm, and the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute polling is non-partisan, conducted by University of Chicago Professor Will Howell. The margin of error ranges from plus or minus 2.9 to 5.2 percentage points.

Elections

In addition to the polling that suggests a close presidential contest in 2012, the April 2011 statewide race for Supreme Court between JoAnn Kloppenburg and David Prosser was extremely tight. Prosser won but not by much. Prosser’s 7,004 vote margin of victory out of 1.5 million votes was the narrowest margin of victory in any Supreme Court race in Wisconsin’s history. He won by less than half a percentage point. The closeness of the 2011 Supreme Court race, coming on the heels of the 2010 GOP blowout across Wisconsin, illustrates how quickly the statewide political dynamic can change.

If the 2012 election evolves into the forth consecutive “wave” election, favoring one side or the other dramatically, than all predictions for a close race in Wisconsin will vanish. If the election is more competitive, the Kloppenburg-Prosser outcome may very well signal that Wisconsin is returning to its status as the number one “quintessential battleground state” it’s been since 1968.

Professor John Coleman of the University of Wisconsin-Madison made this point after the April Supreme Court race between Kloppenburg and Prosser: “Wisconsin is a 50/50 state and has been for a while. People lost sight of that with Obama’s big win in 2008 and the Republicans’ sweeping in 2010. But overall, this is a state on a partisan knife-edge that can be mobilized to produce victories for conservatives and victories for liberals.”

Looks like we’re in for another nail-biter election in 2012! 

Joe Murray is Director of Political and Governmental Affairs for the WRA.

* Editorial note: Herman Cain announced the suspension of his campaign for U.S. President on December 4, 2011.