For the first time in nearly 14 years, Democrats in Wisconsin have a chance at regaining legislative control from Republicans in the Wisconsin Assembly due to new district maps drawn by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and passed by Republican lawmakers in February.

Republicans currently hold a 64-35 majority in the Wisconsin Assembly. According to an analysis by political redistricting expert Joe Handrick, under the new maps, the state will move from having 58 safe Republican Assembly seats to only 46 out of 99; 44 will lean Democratic, and nine will be highly competitive. Handrick’s analysis clearly illustrates that both Democrats and Republicans have a shot at holding the majority under the new legislative district maps.

In order to win an Assembly majority this November, Handrick said, Democrats would have to win all 44 seats leaning in their favor under the new maps, along with six of the nine highly competitive seats. For Republicans to hold their majority, they must win all 46 Republican seats under the new maps along with four of the nine highly competitive seats.

Bottom line: Democrats have a chance of winning the majority under the new maps, but most political prognosticators expect Republicans to retain their Assembly majority in 2024, though their advantage will be slimmer than the absolute authority it now commands.

Top 12 battleground districts

Handrick’s analysis includes 12 battleground Assembly seats he believes will receive the most attention and money. These 12 districts include nine incumbents running for reelection and three open seats. All 12 districts fall into the “highly competitive” category. Here are selected facts that describe these 12 competitive districts in the Wisconsin Assembly for the 2024 election cycle

• Six of the 12 competitive districts are on the eastern side of Wisconsin: Assembly districts 21, 26, 53, 61, 88 and 89
• Five of the 12 districts are on the western side: Assembly districts 30, 51, 91, 92 and 94
• Only one of the 12 is located in central Wisconsin: Assembly district 85. 
• Through the power of incumbency, Republicans have the advantage in seven of the 12 competitive seats: Assembly districts 21, 26, 30, 53, 61, 85 and 92.
• Incumbents in two of the 12 seats give Democrats the advantage: Assembly districts 91 and 94.
• Three of the 12 districts are pure toss-up seats where either side can prevail: Assembly districts 51, 88 and 89.

The big 12

Source: Joe Handrick
*Incumbents typically over-perform the district percentage for their party.
**The Republican candidate is a former incumbent and Neenah mayor.

Spending will surge

Campaign spending for Democrats and Republicans will likely break all the records in these 12 Assembly districts in 2024. With control of the Assembly a possibility for either side under the newly drawn maps, both parties will be ramping up the amount spent on advertising, field staff and polling to influence the outcome in these 12 districts. Handrick labeled these seats “The Big 12” for good reason.