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Updated on July 29, 2008
October 2003
Volume 20, Number 1

Inside This Edition

Front Page Article
Legal Matters
Education & Products
Web Wise
Public Policy Forum
Land Use Forum
Inside the WRA

 

Public Policy Forum

  Wisconsin Is Presidential Battleground State

by Joe Murray

If you like hotly contested political races, you're going to love living in Wisconsin in 2004. The Badger State will likely be a key battleground for both parties in next year's presidential election.

In November 2000, Democrat Al Gore narrowly defeated Republican George W. Bush by 5,708 votes. In fact, the 2000 election was the first time since 1964 that Wisconsin did not vote for the presidential winner.

For those looking for proof that Wisconsin will be a winnable state for both parties, a quick review of past elections and current realities suggest another close race at the top-of-the-ticket next year.

  • In the 1998 U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin, Democrat Russ Feingold defeated Republican Mark Neumann 890,059 (51%) to 852,272 (48%), or 37,787 votes.
  • Democrat Al Gore beat Republican George W. Bush 1,242,987 (47.8%) to 1,237,279 (47.6%) in 2000, or 5,708 votes.
  • Democrat Jim Doyle defeated Republican Scott McCallum in the 2002 gubernatorial contest 800,515 (45.9%) to 734,779 (41.39%), or 65,736 votes.
  • The Wisconsin congressional delegation is evenly divided, four Republicans and four Democrats.
  • Republicans control both houses of the state Legislature (18-15 in the Senate; 59-40 in the Assembly) but Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats and the governorship.

Early Primary
Wisconsin's February 17th presidential primary will generate lots of attention from the ten candidates running for the Democratic nomination to oppose President Bush next November. The last time Democrats were active in a primary was 1992, when then Governor Bill Clinton from Arkansas defeated former California Governor Jerry Brown for the right to claim primary delegates from Wisconsin.

With ten candidates running for the nomination, Wisconsin will be showered with campaign visits, media attention and hundreds of television and radio ads. Wisconsin's February 17th primary comes after the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, and before the mega-state California and New York primaries. If different candidates win Iowa and New Hampshire, the Wisconsin primary will likely become a "must win" election for one or more of the candidates.

Democratic Campaign Ads
Another sign that Wisconsin has made the top 10 list of battleground states is early advertising by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the Howard Dean Campaign.

In July, the DNC spent about $20,000 on ads run in Madison that criticized Bush on his Iraq policy. DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe, when asked why he made the decision to target unprecedented early advertising in Wisconsin said, "Well, Madison, Wisconsin kicks off the 2004 presidential cycle. This is the first cycle of ads. Wisconsin is obviously a target state for the Democrats, so we thought we'd go to the state that obviously has tremendous importance."

And former Vermont Governor Howard Dean fired the first advertising salvo by airing his campaign ads in Wisconsin in late August and early September. At the same time he began his advertising, Dean hired full-time campaign coordinators in Wisconsin as well.

Bush Visits
Not to be outdone by the "gang of ten," President Bush has traveled extensively to key states he either narrowly won or lost in the 2000 contest, including Wisconsin.

States Bush has visited most often since taking office:

  1. Pennsylvania: 22
  2. Florida: 16
  3. Missouri: 13
  4. Michigan: 11
  5. Ohio: 11
  6. Iowa: 9
  7. Illinois: 9
  8. California: 8
  9. Wisconsin: 7
  10. Tennessee: 7
  11. North Carolina: 7
  12. Minnesota: 7

Because Wisconsin will play a crucial role in the Democratic primary, and Bush isn't expected to draw primary opposition, Wisconsinites can expect even more visits from Bush and his team before and after the February 17th primary.

As noted by Ross Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University, "These are states which for a variety of reasons are competitive, have relatively high turnouts and have a fairly large percentage of people who are nominally Democrats but, if the candidate and conditions are right, will vote Republican."

Get ready, here they come!

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  WRA Seeks Health Insurance Solutions

by Michael Theo

Like most businesses and families, Realtors are facing dramatically higher health insurance costs. However, unlike many other businesses, including many small businesses, Realtors face an even greater problem because health insurance coverage for independent contractors is becoming increasingly impossible to find. The twin problems of cost and availability is making health insurance one of the key business issues for Realtors in Wisconsin and across the country.

In response, the WRA is investigating legislative solutions to help make affordable health insurance coverage for all Realtors a reality in Wisconsin. Several options are now being researched for possible legislation later this session. One potentially viable approach under consideration would be to allow the members of certain qualifying trade associations (including the WRA) to participate in Wisconsin's existing small business insurance pool. Such an approach would require a narrow definition of those who qualify so insurers can sufficiently rate the pool within acceptable risks.

If such an approach is adopted, it could provide Realtors with guaranteed coverage, a prohibition on excluding individuals with poor health, provide limited guarantee of renewability and place reasonable restrictions on annual rate increases.

Regardless of the specifics of this legislation, the WRA will work closely with the Doyle administration, the legislature and Wisconsin's insurance industry to craft a bill that is not only good for REALTORSŪ, but one that can pass the Legislature and be signed into law.
For more information, contact Michael Theo at mtheo@wra.org.

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