Public Policy Forum
Under the Dome
by Joe
Murray
State Budget Deficit Won't Go Away
If you pay attention to state government issues in Wisconsin, you probably know that the state of Wisconsin is running a deficit of $1.1 billion for the 2001-03 biennium.
On Jan. 22, Governor Scott McCallum called the legislature into special session with his plan to erase the red ink and meet his constitutional obligation to balance the state budget.
Since then, the state Senate and Assembly have both passed different versions of the budget repair bill to balance the books. But the two sides have found it very difficult to reconcile their differences, and the end result may very well mean that Wisconsin's state government will face the daunting task of eliminating another $1.1 billion deficit again next year after the Nov. 5 elections.
The reasons are simple. Instead of cutting state spending or raising taxes to effectively wipe out the $1.1 billion deficit, the legislature decided (both Democrats and Republicans) to use Wisconsin's entire share of the national tobacco settlement to fill the financial hole. The deficit repair bill to which both sides will eventually agree will use what remains of the tobacco lawsuit money-about $825 million.
Using this one-time money along with selected state agency cuts and several other one-time steps will "balance" the budget just in time for the Nov. 5 legislative and gubernatorial elections. What it will not do is fix the financial problem.
When the expected $1 billion deficit returns for the legislature next January, whomever is elected governor will face the task of truly eliminating the huge deficit without the easy, one-time funding that was made possible through the tobacco settlement.
WEAC Leadership Endorses Doyle
The political arm of the Wisconsin Education Association Council (WEAC) has recommended to its members that the state's largest teachers union support Democratic candidate for Governor James Doyle in the Sept. 10 primary. The WEAC endorsement must be ratified by the 67,000 members of the union who have paid dues to the political action committee.
The WEAC endorsement of Doyle is the most significant special interest endorsement for any of the four democratic candidates as they head towards the Sept. 10 primary. With 94,000 members and millions to spend on behalf of (or opposition to) any candidate they choose to support, WEAC's endorsement carries a lot of weight.
In spite of the endorsement, democratic insiders are not certain the union can deliver the knockout punch for Doyle this fall.
First, the leadership endorsement must be voted on by the 67,000 PAC contributors. Attorney General Doyle will need a majority of the returned ballots to lock-up the endorsement.
Second, not all of WEAC's local representatives agree with the union's recommendation for Doyle in the Democratic primary. Comments from some of the locals include:
- Mishicot Education Association President John Thompson: "This is about the dumbest thing WEAC could possibly do. First of all, the filing date for nomination papers is over a month away, but more importantly, we currently have four candidates for governor in the Democratic primary who are all very good on the issue of education."
- Sheboygan Education Association President Joe Wilson: "The intelligent thing to do would be to wait and see which candidate was the most appealing to the voters in the September primary and then get behind the winner in the general election."
- Monona Grove Education Association President Annette Eisman: " WEAC talks about having this democratic process for the gubernatorial endorsement, but it is really the boys at the top who are cutting their deals again and then leading the teachers around like sheep and calling it a democratic process."
- Sheboygan's Joe Wilson: "My union is going to take my money and spend it to try to defeat two candidates, state senator Gary George and Congressman Tom Barrett, in the Democratic primary who have spent their entire legislative careers taking the hard votes on behalf of the teachers.. ... That is just wrong and stupid."
If Jim Doyle maintains his lead in the Democratic primary and goes on to get the nod on Sept. 10, WEAC will be riding high. If Doyle gets beat by any of the other three primary opponents, WEAC's leadership will have some explaining to do to its members.
The Ed Thompson/Jim Young Factor
For the vast majority of Wisconsin voters, statewide gubernatorial races come down to a choice between one Democrat and one Republican. Whichever candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote wins.
It's quite possible this year that whoever wins the Wisconsin governor's race in November could win with substantially less than 50 percent.
In addition to Republican Scott McCallum and the Democratic nominee, this year's gubernatorial ballot will include two potentially significant third-party candidates-Libertarian Ed Thompson and Green Party candidate Jim Young. If either of these third-party candidates catches on with voters with anything close to 10 to 15 percent of the total vote, it could very well swing the election one way or another.
The question for those who follow elections is which side will be hurt the most if either or both of these third-party candidates get any traction with voters?
Early conventional wisdom inside the Capitol argues that libertarian candidate Ed Thompson will take most of his votes from Republican Scott McCallum. Thompson is, after all, the brother of former Governor Tommy Thompson. Early polls, however, suggest that Ed Thompson's support comes from both Democrats and Republicans. As Thompson's poll numbers improve, it will be interesting to watch where his support comes from.
Capitol insiders have little doubt where Green Party candidate Jim Young's support will come from. The better Young does, the more it will hurt the Democratic nominee. Democrats point to the fact that Green Party candidate for President Ralph Nader received 3.6 percent of the Wisconsin vote in 2000, or 94,070 votes. If those voters, or even a majority of them, had voted for Al Gore, Gore would have locked-up Wisconsin's 11 electoral votes early. Instead, Gore carried Wisconsin by 5,707 votes out of 2.6 million cast statewide.
It's unlikely that Young or Thompson will generate enough support to win in November. But the current political landscape couldn't be better for a run by a third-party candidate. With gridlock over the state budget deficit, the ongoing caucus investigation and voters in a bad mood everywhere, it could be that Ed Thompson and Jim Young have a lot to say over who is elected governor on Nov. 5.
Campaign Update
As election year 2002 moves into overdrive, it's worth noting two significant recent developments.
First, Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura announced he would not seek re-election. Ventura's decision to retire after only one term could dampen the spirits of reform candidates across the country. Ventura was the symbol of what's possible if and when voters decide that "business as usual" is unacceptable.
What Ventura's decision will mean to the Wisconsin political landscape is less certain. Gubernatorial candidate Ed Thompson, running on the Libertarian ticket, never misses an opportunity to compare his candidacy to the 1998 candidacy of Jesse Ventura.
In 1998, Ventura ran as a third-party candidate dedicated to reforming Minnesota's statehouse. Libertarian Ed Thompson is running on a platform almost identical to Ventura's from 1998. As noted before, Thompson's appeal could grow due to the scandal in the state Capitol.
But Thompson has to be disappointed that the shining star of the reform movement has decided to pack his bags and leave after one term. The Thompson for Governor campaign will watch closely to see if Ventura's departure takes away some of his momentum.
Second, Milwaukee County voters continued their drive to punish incumbent supervisors for their questionable votes approving significant pension enhancements for themselves and county employees.
Milwaukee County voters swept three incumbent supervisors from the County Board in recall elections on Tuesday, June 18. Defeated incumbents included Penny Podell, Kathleen Arciszewski and Linda Ryan. Recall organizers have targeted several other supervisors, including the board chair, for defeat this summer.
The significance of the recall movement in Milwaukee County cannot be overstated and should not be underestimated. If voters don't like what they see in state government this November, it's possible their anger could spill over into legislative elections, and what it could mean to the gubernatorial race is unknown.
But the message voters have sent this year in the spring election cycle around Wisconsin, as well as the recall elections in Milwaukee County, seems unmistakable: voters are demanding change. Candidates who defend the status quo may find themselves on the outside looking in after voters head to the polls this November.
Back to Inside This
Edition
Return to On-Line
Publications
McCallum Presents "Build Wisconsin" Initiative
By Michael Theo
Governor Scott McCallum presented his vision for Wisconsin's economic future with the unveiling of a comprehensive "Build Wisconsin" economic development strategic plan, delivered in a series of statewide appearances last week. The plan is intended to create a strategic direction for the state's economy and provide both short- and long-term action steps on how to ensure "Wisconsin's economic vitality."
According to the governor, the plan is designed to develop regional strategies and partnerships that seek to capitalize on growth opportunities that are unique to each region of the state. The key strategies of his plan include:
Improve Wisconsin's business climate:
- Establish a comprehensive agricultural development plan featuring aggressive business growth;
- Promote region-specific industrial cluster development;
- Evaluate each cluster's capacity for critical elements such as R&D, capital, exporting, education and training, and entrepreneurship;
- Establish and use regional incubator centers to provide commercialization support for entrepreneurs;
- Target federal research labs, small business assistance and R&D funding as resources for Wisconsin businesses;
- Promote policies that ensure the adequacy of future electric capacity (includes the addition of at least 6,300 megawatts of electric capacity by 2016);
- Invest in all transportation modes to meet the needs of our economy.
Maximize Wisconsin's human resources:
- Promote student loan forgiveness tied to residency;
- Develop a recruitment campaign for college seniors to advise them on Wisconsin career opportunities;
- Create an Office of Student Retention at the Department of Workforce Development;
- Create a targeted recruitment strategy focused on adjacent-state Wisconsin alumni;
- Expand the statewide youth apprenticeship program.
Improve Wisconsin's tax climate:
- Reduce the state personal income tax;
- Implement a single-factor business tax system.
The plan is a culmination of a top-to-bottom review of numerous strategic plans and extensive discussions and input from nearly 1,300 citizens across Wisconsin, including representatives of business, labor, education, economic development experts and state and local government leaders. The governor's proposal sets a goal of creating 400,000 new jobs in the state by the end of the decade.
For more information, contact Michael Theo.
Back to Inside This
Edition
Return to On-Line
Publications
Who's Buying and Selling and What Do They Think?
by Michael
Theo
It's clear the housing sector demonstrated tremendous resilience in 2001, despite the mild recession nationally. But who was doing all the buying and selling? NAR set out to find the answer and reported their findings in the "2002 Profile of Buyers and Sellers." Here's some highlights of what they found:
Overall, there were 6.2 million total single-family home sales in 2001, a 69 percent increase over the past decade. In 2001, the homeownership rate in the United States rose to an all-time high of 67.8 percent. Over 72 million families owned homes last year.
Despite the growing presence of the Internet, NAR reports real estate agents continue to be the leading source for information used by homebuyers. Nearly four out of five homebuyers used a real estate agent as an information source and 80 percent of sellers used a real estate agent to assist in the selling process.
Homebuyers in 2001:
- Forty-two percent purchased a home for the first time in 2001;
- The typical homebuyer household consisted of a married couple, age 36, with a household income of $71,300;
- The typical home purchased was an existing single-family detached home in the suburbs;
- The typical search took seven weeks during which a buyer visited 10 homes;
- More than half of homebuyers first learned about their agent from either prior experience or referrals;
- Two-thirds of buyers said they would definitely use the same agent again in a future transaction.
Home sellers in 2001:
- Eighty-four percent of repeat homebuyers sold their previous homes at the same time they purchased their new homes;
- Repeat homebuyers needed only four weeks to sell their previous homes;
- Sellers typically interviewed just one real estate agent before selecting the agent who ultimately sold their home;
- Over half of home sellers chose their agent based on prior interaction with the agent or based on a referral from friends, relatives, or another broker;
- Seven out of 10 sellers said that they would use the same agent in future transactions;
- Forty percent of sellers used the same agent they used in selling their previous home;
- Thirteen percent of homes sold were FSBOs;
- Homes sold with the help of real estate professionals had a median sales price 27 percent higher than those who sold
FSBO.
Use of the Internet
- Forty-one percent of homeowners used the Internet as an information source;
- Homebuyers who searched on the Internet were actually more likely to use a real estate agent to complete the home search and close the transaction;
- Internet users tended to be younger and purchased more expensive homes than other homebuyers;
- 63 percent of buyers said the Internet shortened the search time for their new home.
NAR's report was based on a written survey of 5,700 consumers who either bought or sold a home last year. For more information, contact
Michael Theo or visit NAR's Web site.
Back to Inside This
Edition
Return to On-Line
Publications
Back to Top
|
